Cumulative human impacts and resilience of kelp forests in a changing climate

This project has developed ecological simulation models predicting how Canadian Pacific coastal ecosystems change in response to multiple stressors (e.g., fishing and heat waves), and how climate change affects their resilience. Specifically, methods were developed to simulate multiple stressors and to disentangle their interactions with the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim. The potential of this approach in science and practice was shown by investigating how local human activities and climate change might affect the biodiversity and ecological resilience of kelp forests on Vancouver Island’s west coast. For this purpose, repeated simulations were run with different stressor and climate scenarios and temporary disturbances (such as marine heat waves). Model outputs will be compared to historical data and to existing experiment-based knowledge about stressor interactions in kelp forests. Beyond its scientific potential, primary users of this project’s deliverables are government agencies and stakeholders involved in managing human activities and their cumulative effects. This project will thus make important contributions to both marine science and marine planning.